I ran a tiny, anecdatal and flawed double blinded test of my estradiol HRT. I feel so much better on it that I wanted to see if I could demonstrate it as a direct effect somehow. In this case I tested 8 time points of consecutive 12h periods, for each taking either a placebo (biotin pill) or estradiol. Blinding was done by choosing a placebo of similar shape, place random numbers of each in individual envelopes, writing inside what each was, and writing a random number sequence on outside of envelope, taking them in turn. Then I would take the pills without looking at them.
Readout was whether I could guess from my mood whether I received placebo or estradiol, as checked upon final unblinding.
First night: Received placebo. Nonetheless remained calm.
First morning: Received estradiol. Remained calm.
Second night: Received placebo. Was restless and slept poorly, did not restore from day.
Second morning: Received estradiol, became calm, restored from night.
Third night: Received estradiol. Confounded by first feeling happy while drinking, then surprise misgendering here: https://lost-in-transition.tumblr.com/post/175757193179/lacrimosa . I believe I would
have been calm otherwise, but due to this, believed wrongly it was placebo.
Third morning: Received placebo. Stayed restless, also due to sleep deprivation.
Fourth night: Received placebo. Believed it was estradiol, and felt calm.
Fourth morning: Received estradiol. Remained calm.
In summary thus, guessed 5/8 correctly which is a minor success, but data really is too sparse. Out of morning doses, I was restless the one time I got placebo, and calm the three days I got estradiol. I was calm on all periods I got estradiol, excepting due to a misgendering triggering. However, there were several nights on placebo where I still was calm, possibly because of other factors. Nights I break my 24h intermittent fast, sometimes drink wine, and watch cartoons, not making any demands on myself; nights it makes sense I am anyway quite at peace.
So all in all, I cannot say I always become restless without estradiol, nor that I always am shielded from restlessness on estradiol. Placebo and good things may help and unlucky circumstances may harm. I also cannot rule out that there may be a short-term statistical mood effect, it would need further testing. There is a very slight tendency that there may be, driven by morning doses.
Beyond this, of course there may be long-term mood effects, and there are other types of nervous system effects (differences in sexy scent processing comes to mind), and there are all the bodily effects. This day I am on actual estradiol, and still quite moody, but getting better. Some part of me worries that it would be an issue if I overattach to the concept of mood effects, fog lifting etc., in case it really is mostly placebo, but what if? My trans alignment ultimately is about how my brain cannot relate to me as a person unless I understand myself as a woman; I think this applies analogously to cis persons but the fact of their lifelong lack of misalignment hides it. Ensuring my body and brain and social self has as little of statistical difference to other women as possible is what I need, alongside work in affirming my self-perception as who I need to be to be happy. If I become more calm and happy even as a result of placebo from the medication I take to change my body, that is not a problem, that is an opportunity. Part of me worries that if short-term mood effects really largely are placebo then it might become harder for me to summon them up, but I’ll look into ways of preventing that, and in the end, this study just shows one needs a larger, cleaner study to be able to tell, and that there also are other factors impacting.
Major limitations: First, this tests only short-time effects. It occurs under confounding that my 24h dose was half it should be. It was dirty blinding; my guess from mouthfeel of what pill I received was correct in every case though I never felt certain and think I did not use this for mood assessment. Sampling without replacement from a limited number constrains the readout. Statistical power is woeful, and most problematically, I had only one morning placebo pill, so the power for daily restoration under E vs placebo was not well tested. It also is a test of low-E, low-T conditions, not low-E, high-T, as I did not include my androgen blockers (and since intrinsic production now is low, that would also not have worked). A larger study could be done contrasting 3-day patches with identical placebo patches. This would simplify blinding, give more time for effects to be seen during days. Tracking could be done during this period at regular intervals of mood on a scale using app. Power could be made much higher. The relevant point I want to make is that I think meaningful tests can be done this with with randomly placebo-sabotaged extant HRT, it is not necessary to work on treatment-naïve subjects.